The cities are deserted and the offices half empty. But the economy is not on vacation and neither are the economic data. Let’s see which are the most important and will follow in the week of August 7-13, 2023.
The most important data on the economy
Industrial production Germany
The number released this morning at 8am shows a slowdown in the German economy: -1.5% month-on-month and -1.7% year-on-year. Both numbers are below consensus.
Trust of European Investors
The Sentix index, which measures investor confidence, is still negative in Europe (-18.9) but better than previous data (-23.4) and expectations (-22.5).
The data will be released early Thursday afternoon. The consensus of economists collected by Bloomberg is expected to rise to 3.3% from 3%. According to MPS analysis, “this rebound should be supported by the recent increase in fuel prices”. Core inflation (excluding food and energy costs) should instead remain steady at 4.8%, in line with the June reading.
Harmonized Inflation Germany
The figure due Tuesday morning is expected to be flat at 6.2% yoy and 0.3% mom.
GDP Great Britain
The growth number for England in the second quarter of 2023 should confirm the country’s stagnation: in fact, it is expected to remain unchanged at 0.1%.
Italy’s consumer price index, due out on Thursday, is expected to remain unchanged on both an annual (6%) and quarterly (0.1%) basis. Inflation is therefore expected to continue decelerating after rising by 6.4% in June due to the drop in energy prices.
The data will be released on Friday. Analysts expect it to remain steady at 0% mom and 4.3% yoy
This number will also be announced on Friday. Again, it is expected to remain flat: 0.1%m/m and 2.3%m/y. We recall that in June Spain was the only European country where inflation fell by 1.9%: the lowest rate since 2021 and the only one below the ECB’s 2% target.
In the land of the dragon, consumer prices are expected to fall 0.5%: the lowest since 2020. A figure investors are watching carefully amid concerns about Chinese growth.
The ECB economic report will be released on Thursday. The latter represents the economic and financial information that forms the basis for the Governing Council’s monetary policy decisions. The Bulletin is published eight times a year, two weeks after each monetary policy meeting. The publication of the bulletin may have an impact on the euro.
The data is observed according to the last movements of the Bank of Japanwhat changed that Yield Control Policy (YCC). Wages are expected to hover around 3%: a level above which the BoJ believes wage pressures could have an impact on future inflation.
To follow all economic data consult our World Economic Calendar: in Italian and in real time.
Important news also come quarterly. We advise you to keep the following in mind:
- Tyson Foods (Monday);
- UPS (Tuesday);
- Eli Lilly (Tuesday);
- Bayer (Tuesday);
- Porsche (Tuesday);
- generals (Wednesday);
- aeon (Wednesday);
- Walt Disney (Wednesday);
- Siemens (Thursday);
- alliance (Thursday);
- Deutsche Telekom (Thursday);
- RWE extension (Thursday);
- Unipol (Friday).
In particular, the quarterly edition of Disneyas investors remain skeptical about the streaming and TV business amid slowing subscriber growth and actors’ strikes.