Aug 29, 2023 5:44 p.m
More than a year has now passed since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. But there is still no way out. Unless the Russians and Ukrainians decide to listen to the latest appeal from Pope Franciswho on August 26 last year called for “a jolt of responsibility” and hoped that “space would be given.” voices of peaceto those who are working to put an end to this and so many other conflicts, to those who do not succumb to the “Cainist” logic War but despite everything, continues to believe in the logic of peace, in the logic of peace dialogto the logic of diplomacy“. If his appeal is heeded, the Ukraine war could end tomorrow morning. And if so, what could happen?
4 possible outcomes of the conflict in Ukraine
According to analysts, neither Russia nor Ukraine will be able to achieve complete victory on the ground, considering the conflict is very similar to that in the trenches of World War I, with many casualties for little territory gained. There are 4 possible outcomes of the Ukraine war:
- Restoration of Ukraine before 2014: Ukraine regains all territories annexed by Russia after 2014 invasion of Crimea; however, it would be an implausible scenario as it is unacceptable to Russia;
- Russian Donbass and Crimea: If Russia were able to assert itself enough on the ground to persuade the United States to “stop” the Ukrainian counteroffensive, it would achieve favorable negotiations and retain control of Donbass and Crimea;
- The US stops the war: The United States and Turkey could end their military and economic support to Ukraine, prompting them to negotiate with Russia, which in turn could stop supporting China. At this point, the US, Turkey and China could act as guarantors of peace between Russia and Ukraine.
- Coup in Russia: The Russians could overthrow Putin and his successor could decide to negotiate and end the war in Ukraine.
The consequences of the end of the Ukrainian war
According to analysts from Barclaysthe end of the Ukraine war would lead to a decline pressure on the European gas markets, different from those Companies that have broader exposure to Russia. History teaches us that markets typically react with great force at the end of events with severe socioeconomic implications. The post-war upswing is due to this Up-to-dateness of investors in the conversion of economic goods from the war phase to post-war investments. Typically, the stock markets have been busy about 15 sessions to recover from a war.